News
Good morning and welcome to your Unbound Daily Briefing for Saturday 13th June - topics we're covering today:
- Continuing Row Over UK Defence Investment Plan (DIP)
- EU Reset Delays and Darth Vader Negotiating Tactics
- The Swiss Referendum on a Population Cap
Continuing Row Over UK Defence Investment Plan (DIP)
To bring our readers up to speed, the UK government committed to publish a Defence Investment Plan (DIP), outlining the long term investments it would make, and where it would make them, into our armed forces and defence infrastructure. This plan was originally scheduled and expected to be published in the Autumn of 2025, but it has been repeatedly delayed, with the arguments coming to a head in the last few days.
The difficulty for the current government is that there are only four ways in which an increase in defence spending could be funded (tax more, borrow more, grow more, spend less), and all four have blockers preventing any realistic increases. From a Britain Unbound perspective, this problem would be faced by any party in government at this time, and it is the political choices govern which of those four levers could be pulled, and how acceptable that option would be to their voter base and constituencies.
This challenge also needs to be seen through the lens of the international obligations the UK has made, and wants to make, as regards defence spending - and is currently not living up to the obligations of any of them. So this government has difficult decisions to make, that will have ramifications on the world stage if it fails to make them.
EU Reset Delays and Darth Vader Negotiating Tactics
Outside of a minor miracle, it now seems all but certain that the EU Reset summit originally planned for May and then June, may be delayed again past July - with multiple reports now showing that the increased and changing demands of the EU side of the negotiations (first insisting on Youth Mobility which the UK government previously said was a red line, and since adding domestic fees for EU students at UK universities which is also a red line) are making it increasingly difficult to see a path to any agreement. The EU has made clear that it considers this EU Reset to be an all-or-nothing set of negotiations, with the three main parts (SPS Agreement, ETS Link, and Youth Mobility Scheme) unable to be concluded in isolation. The terms of the first two parts are reportedly closed and ready for agreement, but without the additional demands within the Youth Mobility Scheme, it seems that the deal will not be able to move forward.
It would be ironic if the capitulation to EU rules, that Britain Unbound believe would be negative for the UK economy, were to be prevented by as Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe recently put it politely, "EU overreach on a lot of things connected with youth mobility."
The Swiss Referendum on a Population Cap
On Sunday 14th June, so tomorrow, the Swiss will go to the polls on what is being dubbed in the media as the "Swiss Brexit Vote". For those unfamiliar with the Swiss government model referenda are a common and regular occurrence, but this particular one will have significant ramifications should it pass - and the polls show the result is on a knife edge and too difficult to call. The referendum is on putting in place a cap on the population levels of the nation, with a limit of 10 Million people before 2050 - and actions that the government would have to take, if population levels were to get too close to that level from the current 9.1 Million.
It is being called the "Swiss Brexit Vote", as a victory for the cap would affect the agreements for freedom of movement with the EU, and so would effectively tear up the existing relationship between Switzerland and the EU.
The outcome of this referendum will certainly be one to watch, as the implications go far wider than just the borders of the alpine nation - and the EU response could well have ramifications for the UK.
