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Unbound Briefing Room – W/C 3 August 2026

Opinium Polling Continues to Show Majority Brexit Support

Some weeks ago, Britain Unbound exclusively revealed that The Observer had been conducting polling with Opinium for years, routinely asking about Brexit support - but had not been publishing the results despite being incredibly newsworthy.

The latest Opinium polling has now been released that it conducted for the Observer, and yet again we find the inclusion of question V1007, "Thinking about Brexit, which of the following comes closest to your view?". The results are yet again entirely consistent with the results they've received over the past two years of asking: a majority support for staying out of the EU.

The poll, which questioned a nationally representative group of over 2000 GB adults, shows a 55% majority for staying out of the EU, versus 34% for rejoining. When the don't know answers are deducted from the results, this provides a 62% majority for Brexit versus 38% for rejoining.

FRIDAY 7TH

The UK is Being Fleeced

New in-depth research borne from multiple Freedom of Information requests, published this morning, shows that UK citizens not only have worse rights in the UK than EU nationals with Settled Status when it comes to bringing family members from overseas, but also that the UK taxpayers are picking up the bill for foreign nationals to study in the UK to the tune of billions of pounds per year.

The research from Neil O'Brien, published on his Substack and the front page of The Times this morning, has multiple astonishing and depressing statistics within it that are all newsworthy in their own right, let alone when bundled together:

  • 66,000 new applicants to the EU Settled Scheme (EUSS) have been accepted in the last 12 months, despite the end date for the scheme having passed FIVE YEARS AGO
  • The UK has seen 43% more successful applicants to the EUSS than the Home Office forecasted in 2019 - 5.9 million over the forecast of 4.1 million
  • More than 1 in every 20 Romanians has EUSS in the UK - 5% of the Romanian population
  • EU citizens with EUSS can bring over family members into the UK with more favourable terms than UK citizens can, without any salary or language test
  • The UK Home Office has granted EU Settled Status in the UK to over 50,000 Indian nationals

TUESDAY 4TH

Two pieces from our Advisory Council members.

First, John Redwood has written a short note on "The growing gap between the US and EU economies", which you can read here.

Second, Brian Monteith's latest column in The Scotsman, which you can read here, argues that "Burnham needs to play hardball with Brussels to remain PM".

MONDAY 3RD

The Ceuta crisis is still rippling through the EU

The fallout from the migrant invasion of Spain's North African enclave of Ceuta has continued. Among other things, it has cast more doubt over EU solidarity in the face of such large movements of people, especially so many undocumented young men, while underlining the benefits of strong control of national borders.

As it happens, the risks that these migrants would be able to travel seamlessly to mainland Spain – and hence all the way the Channel – were very small. For a start, Ceuta is not part of the Schengen area, and people travelling to the mainland still need to pass police checkpoints.

Equally, though, the invasion must have been terrifying for the Spanish residents of Ceuta. It also cost the lives of many of the migrants who attempted the crossing. It cannot be downplayed on the basis that most have now gone back home.

This crisis has thrown more light too on Spain’s relatively liberal migration policies, even if these migrants would not have been eligible. Fortunately, the UK now has slightly less to fear outside the EU.

Should the UK leave the ECHR?

Meanwhile, Reform UK has revived its plan to tackle the small boats crisis by using the Royal Navy to return migrants across the Channel. This raises a host of legal, military and practical issues. But, just like the Ceuta crisis, it has also added fuel to the debate about leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

Britain Unbound is a "broad church" and has no single position on whether the UK should withdraw from the ECHR. Nonetheless, the ECHR has been used to block deportations and frustrate UK policy in many areas. Leaving would restore sovereignty to UK courts and Parliament.

Brexit has made it simpler to leave the ECHR too. The ECHR is part of the Council of Europe, not the European Union. But it is also part of the EU’s constitutional ecosystem and every country that wants to join the EU is expected to join the ECHR first.

Leaving the ECHR would have legal and political costs. In particular, the ECHR is part of other treaties, including the Good Friday Agreement and the UK’s post-Brexit trade deal with the EU (the TCA). These problems could be overcome, but they would need to be addressed.

In sum, the option of leaving the ECHR might best be seen as a “Brexit freedom” rather than as an unequivocal “Brexit benefit”. But these decisions can now be based solely on the UK's national interests - and this would not be the case if the UK were still in the EU.

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Britain Unbound Team
Britain Unbound Team