Now the EU Youth Mobility Scheme will come on top, adding extra job-seekers into a stretched market in competition with the UK’s own young unemployed. We can expect an influx of foreign nationals looking for work, with no need for them to have a job offer before coming here. The natural first landing place is London, where the situation is even more stretched than in other parts of the country.
- How are they going to support themselves upon arrival? Welfare benefits? What does that do to the government’s budgets, to taxes and to borrowing?
- Are they eligible for NHS treatment and for free? What does that do to the NHS budget, to taxes, to waiting lists, to the accessibility of NHS treatment to those of us who are here already and pay for the NHS?
- Where are they going to live? The rental market has been turned into a disaster by the Renters Rights Act, with a reported drop in supply in London, where a large percentage of EU arrivals can be expected to head for.
Reducing supply plus increasing demand leads to higher rents, and current residents being priced out. That sounds like an increase in housing benefit payments, already out of control, and further pressure on the public finances, taxes and borrowing. This is also likely to lead to an increase in homelessness and rough sleeping, and to a rise in demand on councils for bed-and-breakfast accommodation. How will that be funded? Do we get council tax and/or business rates being increased again? Why should the payers of those taxes be expected to cough up for this purpose?
Do councils end up cutting other services, used by current residents, to pay for this? Do the newcomers end up receiving housing benefit as well such that the rest of us are subsidising them to outbid our own people for rental accommodation?
Chance of unrest
There is such a cauldron of anger about Labour’s running of the country, particularly about Starmer’s lying about not reversing Brexit, that this particular betrayal could lead to flashpoints at a local level, and possibly to outbreaks of violence against the arrivals from the EU, over accommodation and jobs primarily, but also over access to public services.
Such unrest in turn has knock-on effects for policing, public order, A&E waiting times, prison overcrowding, new cases for the justice system…and public finances, taxes and borrowing.