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The UK suffered from slower growth, higher taxes, large EU bills and a big balance of trade deficit all the time it was in the EU. Going back in would be even worse because we would not get the opt outs, lower contributions and lose what different treatment we did manage to negotiate to ease some of the worst features of full membership.
We would lose the rebate on contributions successfully negotiated by Margaret Thatcher. The EU budget has gone up a lot since we left. The EU is taking on large piles of its own debt, where we would become part liable if we rejoined. It is likely our annual cost of membership would be around £30bn, far higher than last time. How would we pay for that? What taxes would go up? We would of course have to surrender our revenue from Customs dues and the plastics tax as part of the deal.
We would need to join the Euro. That would mean the loss of democratic control over our economy, with the EU telling us to put up taxes or cut spending in line with their fiscal rules. It would mean accepting interest rates and credit controls appropriate for the European average which might not work for us. Look at the damage done to the UK economy, with a nasty boom and bust, from accepting the EU policy of the Exchange Rate Mechanism. Joining the Euro is joining an ERM you cannot get out of, even if it is giving you too much inflation or forcing you into recession.
Going back in would mean putting tariffs back on the imports of goods we do not make and food we do not grow if imported from non EU, and tariffs on the raw materials and intermediate goods we import to feed our factories. It would jeopardise our Free Trade deals with non EU countries, and take away our seat at the table of the World Trade Organisation.
It would mean imposing thousands of new EU regulations that we have avoided by leaving, adding to business costs and make companies less able to compete and survive. It would damage crucial new industries from digital to plant breeding with rules that would ban or restrict innovation.
It would mean greatly adding to the already excessive UK state debt burden. We would become part liable for their big and growing EU debt, and we would b e borrowing more to help pay for the high costs of membership.
Article originally published on 26th May 2026 on John's personal website, John Redwood's Diary, under the title "Why rejoining the EU would be a bad idea".
