Observer Polling UPDATE: A Year of Brexit Majority

Following on from our news story last night, the Britain Unbound researchers have been hard at work trawling back through the archives of polling conducted by Opinium on behalf of The Observer newspaper, which have taken place on a roughly fortnightly basis for at least the last year. Within that polling, invariably 20+ questions have been asked, typically to gauge voter intention and comparative data between the different party leaders - as well as current affairs cut through. Within these polls, there are also multiple regular appearances of the same question being repeated over time, seemingly out of a wish by The Observer to gauge the change in public sentiment on a given topic over time. One such question is V1007/EU1, which has been asked in the published data files eight times in the past 13 months.

The question asked on these occasions has always been the same, which is "Thinking about Brexit, which of the following comes closest to your view?" - and those taking part in the poll were then offered five options to choose from:

• We should rejoin the EU
• We should remain outside the EU - but negotiate a closer relationship with them than we have now
• We should remain outside the EU - and keep the same relationship with the EU as we have now
• We should remain outside the EU - and negotiate a more distant relationship with them than we have now
• Don't know

On all eight occasions that this question has been asked, the result - which it should be stated is considered of a sufficient sample size to be a representative view of the UK as a whole - was that the majority of the UK with to remain outside of the EU. The results are remarkably consistent over time, and so present a strongly held view within the British public - that we may disagree on the relative proximity of the UK/EU relationship, but what a majority do agree on is that the UK should not be a member of the EU.

You can find all of the data represented in this summary view, in the publications on the Opinium website - Click Here to go to their political polls archive to read for yourself.